Bulletin Autumn 1976

Economic Research Centre The Economic Research Centre was set up in 1964. As the Chinese University was well aware of the strategic position it occupied i n the interflow of Chinese and Western thought, it aspired to be a Chinese institution of international character. The application of Western research methodology to the study of the economic problems of China, Southeast Asia as well as Hong Kong is therefore considered one of the essential roles of the University. The first major research project of the Economic Research Centre was Long-term Economic and Agricultural Commodity Projections for Hong Kong 1970, 1975 and 1980 undertaken in cooperatio n with the U. S. Department of Agriculture during 1966-68, and the results were subsequently published under the same title in 1969 with second printing in 1970. This was followed by a number of smaller research projects and ensuing occasional papers. Since 1973, the Centre has stepped u p its research activities on continuing basis with encouraging results. The following outlines the research projects in progress: Estimation of Hong Kong's National Income and Expenditures, 1950-74 This project started with the estimation of Hongkong's domestic product on the expenditure side, not only improving on th e official estimates of GDP beginning from 1961 but extending them back to 1950-60. This was followed by the study on the income side with breakdowns for major productive sectors. Preliminary comparison of the estimates from the two different approaches for recent years shows that they check with each other quite well, thus pointing to the possibility of setting up Hongkong's national accounts throughout the entire perio d of 1950-74. Construction of an Econometric Forecasting Model for the Hong Kong Economy This project probably represents th e first attempt to systematically read Hongkong's economic future on regular annual basis. It will build an econometric model comprising some 40 simultaneous equations with a feedback loop structure of some 70 socioeconomic variables actively working on the Hong Kong economy. It is expected that the model will take a concrete shape in 1977 and the first projection for 1978 will be made by the end of the same year. Export and Employment -- A Case Study of Hong Kong The purposes of this research project are: (1) to determine the mechanism of employment creation through export expansion, (2) to measure the direct and indirect effects of exports on employment , (3) to identify the key industries in terms of their employment effects, (4) to explain the causes and patterns of export instability which may have direct bearing on employment fluctuations, and (5) to investigate the trade barriers imposed on Hongkong's exports by foreign countries and Hongkong's trade promotion strategies. This project is progressing satisfactorily and is expected to be completed in 1977. A Study on the Chinese Strategy for Technological Transformation in Agriculture, 1965-75 This project covers five major parts, viz., (1) historical review, (2) allocative strategies , (3) organizational strategies and institutional mechanisms, (4) case studies, and (5) aggregate impact. Owing to manpower restraint, only part (5) is undertaken at present. This part concentrates on the integrated"high-stable yield fields" ( accordmg to major grain-regions) with a view to examining the quantitative output and productivity contributions o f various technological advances (water control , mechanization, fertilizer, etc.). China's Model of Development: A Sectoral Linkage Analysis Five major topics will be dealt with, namely, (1) Agricultural Development: Pre- and Post-1949, (2) Growth Patterns of the Industrial Sector, (3) Growth and Structural Changes in Foreign Trade, (4) Labour Absorption and Labour Productivity, and (5) A Sectoral Linkage Analysis. The project will culminate in the construction of a sectoral balanced growth model with emphasis on the intersectoral flow of real goods and financial sources in the context of policy-oriented specification.