Research Papers

Research Papers

COVID-19 Thematic Report No.4: Post-Lockdown Economic Recovery in China: April and May

(2020)

Qin Chen, Zhiguo He, Chang-Tai Hsieh, Zheng (Michael) Song

This letter documents several facts of China’s post-lockdown economic recovery in April and May. The main findings are summarized as follows. (1) Truck flows and online consumption suggest a strong recovery. (2) The recovery of online job posts stagnated. (3) Smaller firms cut online job posts...

COVID-19系列專題報告No.4: 封城後中國經濟的復蘇：4月-5月

(2020)

陳沁 ,何治國 , 謝長泰 , 宋錚

本文記錄了四、五月中國解封後期經濟復蘇的若干事實。主要發現概括如下：（1）卡車貨運流量和線上消費呈現強勁的復蘇趨勢。（2）線上崗位發佈的恢復速度放緩、陷入停滯。（3）...

COVID-19系列專題報告No.3: 中國封城後的經濟復蘇

(2020)

陳沁 ,何治國 , 謝長泰 , 宋錚

4月8日中國政府結束了對武漢長達76的封鎖。除武漢外，許多地方政府已經放寬了對出行的限制，並將重心轉移到了經濟復蘇上。這篇報告記錄了中國封鎖後期經濟復蘇的若干事實。主要發現概括如下。 (1) 官方統計資料表明製造業正在快速復蘇。製造業的反彈可以從城市間卡車流量、線上崗位發佈和空氣污染排放等非官方資料中找到證據。 (2) 電力消費、零售額和餐飲收入表明服務業產出的下降幅度更大。公司註冊登記資料顯示，近期很少有公司進入服務領域。 (3) 跨區域異質性很大。移動設備訪問地點和公司註冊登記資料表明，東南地區的復蘇更為強勁。 (4)...

COVID-19 Thematic Report No.3: Post-Lockdown Economic Recovery in China

(2020)

Qin Chen, Zhiguo He, Chang-Tai Hsieh, Zheng (Michael) Song

The Chinese government ended the 76-day lockdown of Wuhan on April 8. Outside Wuhan, many local governments had already eased restrictions on movement and shifted their focus to reviving the economy. This letter documents several facts of the post-lockdown economic recovery in China. The main findings...

COVID-19, firm exposure, and firm value: A tale of two lockdowns

(2020)

Haoyuan Ding, Haichao Fan, Shu Lin

We examine the stock market responses to two symbolic events in the outbreak of COVID-19: (1) the lockdown of Hubei province; and (2) the containment of the disease in China and its spread to overseas. Overall, market in China responded negatively (positively) to the first (second) event. Regression...

COVID-19 Thematic Report No.2: Economic Effects of Lockdown in China

(2020)

Qin Chen, Zhiguo He, Chang-Tai Hsieh, Zheng (Michael) Song

On January 23 2020, the Chinese government locked down the city of Wuhan (Hubei Province). In subsequent days, similar measures were taken in other cities in Hubei and throughout China. This letter documents several facts of Chinese economy since the lockdown. The main findings are summarized as...

COVID-19系列專題報告No.2: 疫情下中國“封城”的經濟影響

(2020)

陳沁 ,何治國 , 謝長泰 , 宋錚

【本期報告對上期報告中的數據進行了更新，補充了來自手機定位和電商大數據分析的結果，並對“封城”之後兩個月中國經濟的重要特徵進行總結。】 1月23日，中國政府為控制COVID-19新型冠狀病毒的傳播封鎖了湖北省武漢市。隨後幾天，湖北省其他城市、中國其他省市均相繼採取了封鎖措施。本文記錄了封城以來中國經濟的一些事實。主要發現總結如下：（1）封城對各類經濟活動（從人口、貨物的流動到經濟總產出）的影響是直接且巨大的。（2）湖北以外的人口和貨物流動已基本恢復到封鎖前的水準。但商場、辦公樓等場所的日度人口流量仍比封鎖前的水準低三分之一。...

COVID-19 Thematic Report No.1: Preliminary Estimates of Economic Effect of Lockdown in China

(2020)

Zhiguo He, Chang-Tai Hsieh, Zheng (Michael) Song

On January 23, the Chinese government locked down the city of Wuhan (Hubei Province). In subsequent days, similar measures were taken in other cities in Hubei and throughout China. This note offers some preliminary gauge on the effect of the measures taken to protect public health on...

COVID-19系列專題報告No.1: 疫情下中國“封城”對經濟影響的初步估算

(2020)

何治國，謝長泰，宋錚

1月23日，中國政府為控制COVID-19新型冠狀病毒的傳播封鎖了湖北省武漢市。隨後幾天，湖北省其他城市、中國其他省市均相繼採取了封鎖措施。在此背景下，本文將利用三類資料：一是國家統計局所公佈的有關工業產出的官方資料，二是卡車運輸資料（可衡量中國的貨物運輸流動），三是百度人口流動資料（可估計封城對服務業和人口流動的影響），來初步估算量化中國政府為控制疫情保護公眾健康所採取的封城舉措對中國經濟的影響。...

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