日期:2020年10月22日 (星期四)
騰訊會議
中國宏觀經濟研究組會 - 第四次活動
本學期第四次活動將由香港中文大學經濟系2015級博士生陳希路同學主講，安排如下：
時間：10月22日（四）下午14:00-15:00
平臺：騰訊會議
會議ID：468 971 597
陳希路同學
14:00-15:00
A Dual Accounting for Structural Change in China
Coauthored with:
Xilu Chen, CUHK
Guangyu Pei, CUHK
Zheng (Michael) Song, CUHK
摘要
China has been experiencing a remarkable structural change featured with a rapid expansion of the service sector since early 2000s. By mini-census data, the employment share of the service sector increased from 22% in 2005 to 36% in 2015. We first use the development accounting approach to back out TFP growth for each of the agriculture, manufacturing, producer and consumer service sectors in each province. We find that manufacturing and producer services TFP grew significantly in nearly all provinces but, surprisingly, consumer services TFP declined in most provinces. To interpret the results, we develop a dual accounting approach that connects development accounting to the misallocation literature. The sectoral TFP growth by the development accounting can be composed into changes in the sectoral efficient TFP, sectoral wedges and within-industry misallocation. In particular, changes in the within-industry misallocation can be obtained as a residual component from the decomposition, or by the Hsieh-Klenow estimate. Using a large-scale firm survey covering both manufacturing and services between 2007 and 2015, we find that changes in within-industry misallocation estimated by the two different approaches are highly correlated. The decline in China’s consumer services TFP was mainly driven by a worsened misallocation in the sector. Holding within-industry misallocation constant would increase aggregate welfare by 26%. Our findings are robust to resampling of the firm data and classical measurement errors.
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主講人介紹
陳希路同學是香港中文大學經濟系2015級博士生，主要研究興趣在宏觀經濟學和經濟增長。
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關於中國宏觀經濟研究組會
中國宏觀經濟研究組會，是由清華大學-香港中文大學中國經濟聯合研究中心組織的一項長期、持續性的活動。組會的形式是召集清華經管學院有志於中國宏觀經濟學術研究的老師和同學，以及大陸和香港其他老師和同學，討論經濟中的熱點問題和自己的專案，或是不成熟的想法與相對初步的結果。組會的目的是促進和推動中國宏觀經濟的研究，加強教授和學生們之間的合作，討論項目中關鍵技術和難題，以推動研究的進一步發展。
本學期開始，組會將於每週四下午2:00-3:00開展活動。討論採取線上會議的形式。
歡迎大家積極聯繫並參與到組會的論文展示與想法分享中！本組會的形式是非正式的討論和交流，展示的專案進度也可以相對初步，目的是通過共同交流推動宏觀經濟學研究的進展。希望大家踴躍參加！
如果大家身邊有其他有志於中國宏觀經濟學術研究，並準備以此領域為畢業論文或是未來職業發展方向的同學，歡迎向我們推薦。我們隨時歡迎新生力量和創造性思維的加入。希望大家共同進步，推動中國宏觀經濟的研究！
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