Newsletter No. 481

05 # 4 8 1 | 1 9 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 6 成交額與「翻身」的迷思 The Myth of Turnover EduVenture® consists of three integrated components: EV-Composer, EV-eXplorer and EV-Retriever. The EV-Composer is a cloud-based platform by which the teacher can compose digital teaching materials. The students will use the mobile app EV-eXplorer in their field trips. When they come to a certain geo-location, the corresponding pre- installed materials will pop up to give them observation guidelines and let them collect data via photo-taking and audiovisual recording. All the data captured during the field trip, including the route and the time taken to and on each location, will be uploaded via the Internet to the cloud-based EV-Retriever for the teacher’s downloading. The teacher will be on top of the students’ real-time learning process as well as their differences in capability, to provide timely support or post-trip analyses. Learn It Yourself A total of 220 local schools including primary, secondary and special education schools have adopted EduVenture® to support their outside-the-classroom learning activities. Professor Jong said, ‘As long as the students use a smart device with GPS , the system can accurately capture the real-time locations of the users even though the locations do not have network coverage. I have evaluated the system’s effectiveness and found that in addition to helping the students to gain new knowledge, it has increased the students’ understanding of the inquiry process and their motivation for carrying out outdoor learning activities.’ In early 2016, he received a General Research Fund from the Research Grants Council to further conduct a two-year research on how teachers should make use of the system in conventional curriculum to enhance its pedagogic effectiveness. ‘It is envisioned that the research would optimize the system design and its application to teaching, and thereby encourage its wider use in outdoor inquiry learning.’ 莊紹勇教授（右二）與EduVenture ® 研究團隊 Prof. Jong Siu-yung Morris (2nd right) and EduVenture ® Research Team 我們常在電臺電視聽到財經分析員說「股票市場成交額低，反映市場缺乏動力」。這種說法 頗值得商榷，原因是成交額與實際市場走勢往往有所偏差。 股票成交額是指成交量乘以成交價的總和。比方說，一百萬股滙控以平均每股53元成交， 成交額就是5,300萬元。交易次數愈多，成交額愈高，成交價格的波動也會相對地大。 如甲買家對滙控感興趣，他可以在股票市場以每股53元買入四百股。如無人願意賣出，買 家可以出更高的價錢（如53.1元）。若仍無人願意出售，他可再提高叫價至53.2元，如此類 推。如果最後有人願以53.2元出售，成交額就是21,280元。此成交額並不代表滙控的走勢 會是往上或是往下，只顯示了買賣雙方同意以53.2元成交四百股滙控，而成交價高於前一 天的收市價。 如甲買家對滙控的前景非常樂觀，他可以每股53.2元買入四百萬股，但市場上可能沒有足 夠的賣家願意以此價位沽出，甲買家需要出更高的價錢。最後，他可能以不同的價格，如 53.3元、53.4元……直到收市價的56元，即平均55元一股的價錢，買入四百萬股。這樣一 來，成交額總計就是二億二千萬元。但我們能否以此認定，滙控未來的股價將高於收市價的 56元？成交額只反映市場上有看好後市的買家，遇上了對後市看淡的賣家，彼此以雙方同意 的價格交易，但要以成交額作為預測該股未來股價走勢的指標，還是有點牽強。 此外，更可能有不為人知的背後動機。為何某些財經專家願意以微薄的酬勞上電臺電視分 享他們的投資心得？他們有些代表賣家或是證券經紀商，而成交量及成交額都與他們的佣 金有直接關係。 We sometimes heard the financial commentators on TV or radio say that a low ‘turnover’ in the stock market indicates there’s no strong force to push the market up or down further. This should be taken with skepticism as the turnover is far from an accurate measurement of the direction the market will move. Turnover is defined as the volume of transactions multiplied by the prices. For example, if 1 million shares of HSBC stock are transacted at the average price of $53, then the turnover becomes $53 million. The larger the number of transactions, the higher the turnover will be and so will be the variations of the transacted prices. The market turnover of a specified period is the aggregate of the turnovers of all the stocks traded over the same period. If Buyer A is optimistic about HSBC stock, then he can buy 400 shares from the market at $53 per share. If nobody is willing to sell at $53, he can up his bid to, say, $53.1. If there’s still no willing seller, then he can try higher—$53.2, and so on. If finally, a seller is willing to sell at $53.2 and the transaction is completed, then the turnover becomes $21,280. This amount of turnover does not imply that the HSBC stock can go higher or lower but merely a mutual agreement between a buyer and a seller to transact 400 HSBC shares at $53.2 which is higher than its closing price of $53 the day before. If Buyer A is unreservedly optimistic about HSBC stock, then he can try to buy 4 million shares at $53.2 but, in this case, there may not be enough sellers in the market at this price. Buyer A needs to raise the price again, and may eventually have bought all 4 million shares in various tranches at prices of $53.3, $53.4, ….all the way to the closing price of $56 with an average price at $55. The turnover then becomes $220 million. Can we conclude that such a high turnover means that the price of HSBC will go even higher than the closing price of $56? Other than a result of the meeting of the minds between optimistic buyer(s) and pessimistic seller(s), the turnover figure is hardly an indication of the future direction of the price of the stock concerned. Then there are issues of hidden agenda as well. Why would the financial pundits be willing to appear on TV or radio to share invaluable investment tips for a modest fee? Many of them are from the ‘seller’ side or brokerage houses. The volume of transactions and turnovers have direct bearing on the amount of their commission income.